PHOTO USA Today Sports Images No Major League Baseball team won 100 games in 2024, representative of an infusion of parity.
Not since 2014 has the league gone without a 100-win team. The balance would make the playoffs difficult enough to predict even if the sport’s powers that be hadn’t already turned the postseason into a March Madness-esque free-for-all.
The first two seasons of the 12-team field yielded a pair of unlikely World Series runners-up in the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks, who became baseball’s version of Butler or San Diego State by winning the pennant despite being the NL’s sixth seed.
We’d say a Villanova circa 1985 or Kansas circa 1988 champion is coming, except we’ve already seen the St. Louis Cardinals (2006 and 2011), San Francisco Giants (2014) and Atlanta Braves (2021) win the World Series during the eight- and 10-team field eras despite possessing the worst regular season record of any playoff squad. Since 1995, the first season in which wild cards advanced to the playoffs, the team with the best record in the field has won it all just eight times.
Even trying to drill down to the basics of what we think we know about October baseball doesn’t provide much clarity. The general consensus is that power and bullpens win at this time of year. But in the last 11 normal postseasons (discounting the 16-team tournament following the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), just seven teams have reached the World Series after finishing the regular season ranked among the top 10 in both homers and bullpen ERA.
So who will be hoisting Rob Manfred’s favorite giant piece of metal? Your guess is as good as ours…which you can read below!
American League Playoff Predictions
WILD-CARD SERIES
Sep 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) motions to the crowd while walking to the dugout after a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images No. 6 Detroit Tigers (86-76) at No. 3 Houston Astros (88-73)
The Astros, who have reached the ALCS seven straight times, opened 12-24 but had the best record in the majors (75-49) since May 9. The Tigers traded ace-caliber pitcher Jack Flaherty at the deadline before storming into the playoffs by going a big league-best 31-13 since Aug. 11.
Detroit has AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal but almost nothing else in the starting rotation. With Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco available on normal or extended rest, the Astros are deep enough in the rotation that the aging Justin Verlander likely won’t be needed.
PREDICTION: Astros in 3
No. 5 Kansas City Royals (86-76) at No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
Sep 10, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) and relief pitcher John Schreiber (46) celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images The Royals are 11-16 since Aug. 30, a span in which they’ve endured two seven-game losing streaks. But their struggles coincided with the absence of Vinnie Pasquantino, who suffered a broken right thumb on Aug. 29 and is likely to return this week. Add him to a lineup that includes superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and suddenly the Royals — with co-aces Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo available this series — are a classically dangerous short-series team.
The Orioles rank fourth in the bigs in OPS and 15th in ERA, but they’re 38-40 since July 1 and have seemed strangely off all year. Nine different relievers have recorded a save for Baltimore, whose bullpen ERA of 4.22 is the worst of any playoff team. That’s the type of thing that can quickly end a season.
PREDICTION: Royals in 3
AL DIVISION SERIES
Royals vs. New York Yankees (94-68)
Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
Sep 26, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (27) hits a solo home run during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images If they get this far, the Royals are the dangerous first-time October combatants who don’t know any better to be intimidated by the Yankees, who have two of the greatest players on the planet in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and a Hall of Fame-bound starting pitcher in Gerrit Cole…and not much else. The key player will be Giancarlo Stanton, who has been productive when healthy this season and is proven in the playoffs.
The Guardians replaced Terry Francona with Stephen Vogt yet maintained their usual blueprint of augmenting a top-heavy lineup with a dominant bullpen. But the Astros can match Cleveland’s pitching and offer a much more potent batting order along with the championship pedigree.
PREDICTION: Yankees in 5, Astros in 4
AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Rerun season in October.
The Astros’ dynastic run includes regular tormenting of the Yankees. Houston eliminated New York in the ALCS in 2017, 2019 and 2022. This won’t be a sweep, a la 2022, but the Astros are the deeper team everywhere.
PREDICTION: Astros in 6
National League Playoff Predictions
WILD-CARD SERIES
No. 6 New York Mets (89-73) at No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
Sep 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a three-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the sixth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images The Mets, who properly summarized their season by clinching a playoff berth with a chaotic 8-7 win over Atlanta on Monday in Game No. 161 of the season, might be the most unpredictable team in the field. They were 24-35 through June 2 but are a majors-best 65-38 since then, a span in which Francisco Lindor established himself as an MVP candidate and Sean Manaea and Luis Severino emerged as aces.
The Brewers, who lost general manager David Stearns to the Mets and manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs following last season, showed the thoroughness of the organization by winning the NL Central for the fourth time in seven years. They injected a little bit of old-school style (217 stolen bases, second in the majors) into a modern mix (four players hit 20 or more homers while their relievers posted an NL-best 3.11 ERA). Over the past two seasons, they went 5-1 against the Mets in Milwaukee and 11-2, but these Mets have a little bit of their dramatic forefathers in them.
PREDICTION: Mets in 3
No. 5 Atlanta Braves (89-73) at No. 4 San Diego Padres (93-69)
Sep 30, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes (66) reacts after an inning against the New York Mets in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images It’s always dangerous to underestimate a team with championship pedigree, but the Braves’ tank might be empty. The top three batters in the Opening Day lineup—Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley—combined to play just 258 games, with Acuna and Riley done for the year, and Acuna and Riley will miss the postseason. Opening Day starter Spencer Strider made just two starts before sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury. Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach and a resurgent Chris Sale were revelations, but Lopez and Schwellenbach pitched Monday, and Sale is likely out for the wild-card series due to back spasms.
The only team more unpredictable than the Mets might be the Padres, who have been perpetual disappointments in the free-wheeling A.J. Preller era outside of a trip to the NLCS in 2022. However, they went 43-19 after opening 50-50 and boast perhaps the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in the playoffs, along with NL batting champ Luis Arraez and the dangerous duo of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
PREDICTION: Padres in 2
NL DIVISION SERIES
Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Sep 16, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) walks to the dugout after a called strikeout against the Atlanta Braves in the sixth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Every October presents a nightmare scenario for the Dodgers, who have won the most games in baseball (1,037) since 2014 but just one title. A lack of starting pitching—no healthy hurler on the roster has thrown more than 90 innings—might be too much even for the superhuman Shohei Ohtani to overcome, especially if the Padres have some momentum from the wild-card round and fresh arms to open the series.
The Phillies have symbolized the bizarre nature of the 12-team field by making the World Series as an 87-win team in 2022 and falling to the unheralded Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS last year. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a potent 1-2 punch atop the rotation, and a Bryce Harper-led lineup is October-tested. But if the Mets get this far, the Phillies might see the flip side of their 2022 experience yet again.
PREDICTION: Padres in 4, Mets in 5
NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
An LCS pairing of two teams who underwhelmed for the majority of the season would be a most appropriate matchup for baseball’s March Madness era. Despite being loaded with veterans, the Mets are on an upward trajectory with Stearns running the front office. Still, their months-long sprint to get here may finally catch up to them against the now-or-never Preller and the Padres, who are better prepared for the marathon of October.
PREDICTION: Padres in 6
WORLD SERIES
The Steve Finley Bowl! The latest last dance for the Astros continues longer than anyone expected, but long-suffering San Diego, abandoned for Los Angeles by the Clippers and Chargers, finally gets to hoist a championship trophy as late owner Peter Seidler’s vision of spending big to bring a title to a small market is finally realized.
PREDICTION: Padres in 6
